Cornering The Job Market

Breaking Job News: The Four Futures of Jobs & Why AI Isn’t the Real Threat

• Pete Newsome

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AI headlines are loud, but the real question is how jobs, wages, and hiring change next. In today’s video, host Pete Newsome breaks down the biggest job market stories shaping the future of work, starting with the World Economic Forum’s four futures for jobs by 2030. Instead of one prediction, the data shows four paths driven by two forces: how fast AI advances and how ready the workforce is to adapt.

He also unpacks Forrester’s latest analysis on AI and job loss, which shows AI reshapes work far more often than it replaces it. At the same time, new small business data explains why hiring feels stuck: open roles are rising, yet qualified candidates remain hard to find. The issue isn’t demand or confidence; it’s skills and readiness.

Finally, Pete connected the dots between these stories and what to do next. He covers which skills hold up across every scenario, why entry-level and administrative jobs face the most pressure, and how workers and employers can stay competitive as AI adoption accelerates.

So here’s the question: Which future do you think we’re heading toward, and what are you doing right now to stay ahead of it?

Articles:
1. World Economic Forum Report: https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_Jobs_in_the_New_Economy_AI_and_Talent_in_2030_2025.pdf
2. Forrester Analysis: https://www.forrester.com/blogs/ai-and-automation-will-take-6-of-us-jobs-by-2030/
3. NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-continues-to-rise/

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Pete Newsome:

Welcome to cornering the job market for Tuesday, January 13th. Today's headlines are focused on how AI will shape the future of work and the latest hiring outlook for small businesses. First, the World Economic Forum just published a report titled Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy: AI and Talent in 2030. In it, the WEF outlines how U.S. employment could evolve based on two variables, how fast AI advances and how prepared workers are to adapt. I'll share a lot more on that in a second, but I first want to highlight some of the findings in this report that were based on a survey of 10,000 global executives.

Pete Newsome:

54% expect AI to displace jobs. Now there's two camps generally. There's those who believe AI disruption is going to be significant, a camp I'm in, by the way, and those who believe that it's much ado about nothing, including our own AI czar in the US, who consistently downplays the impact that he believes AI will have on the job market. He thinks it's going to be net gains from AI, and I hope that there will be, but I thought it was interesting and it's certainly worth noting that more than half of the executives in this survey expect AI job displacement. Now, 24% expect AI will create jobs, and only 12% expect AI to raise wages. So a lot of varied opinions on that. We're all going to see how it plays out in the not too distant future, that's is for sure.

Pete Newsome:

But back to the four future scenarios, they're based on two things the pace of AI advancement, either incremental or exponential, and workforce readiness, widespread or limited. And here's an overview of each. First one is called supercharged progress. That's exponential AI advancement plus widespread workforce readiness. What will happen in this scenario is AI breakthroughs will dramatically boost productivity across essentially all U.S. industries. Many jobs will disappear, but new roles will scale quickly. Work will shift from task execution to AI oversight and orchestration. Wage inequality will widen, unfortunately, in this scenario if it happens, and governance and safety nets will struggle to keep pace.

Pete Newsome:

The second scenario is the one that would be the worst for the American workforce and the world overall. I think of it as the terminator scenario. They call it the age of displacement. That combines exponential AI advancement with limited workforce readiness. In this scenario, companies would automate faster than workers can reskill and adapt. It'll result in rapid job loss, labor mobility, collapses, and unemployment would skyrocket. Also, wages would decline to a significant degree, and consumer confidence would erode for good reason. And it would also place severe pressure on social systems. So essentially bad all around. Let's hope that one doesn't happen. I won't linger on it too long.

Pete Newsome:

The next one is what they call the co-pilot economy. That's incremental AI advancement plus widespread workforce readiness. In this scenario, AI would be adopted pragmatically as a co-pilot, not a replacement. U.S. workers will use AI to augment their tasks while demand grows for problem solving, management, human-centered skills. So this would be a mostly positive scenario. Job churn would increase, but employment would remain relatively stable. And productivity would grow as well in this scenario. So there wouldn't be a mass automation shock if this happened. So slower AI growth, but workforce, the workforce is ready for it.

Pete Newsome:

The final scenario is what they refer to as stalled progress. That's incremental AI adoption and limited workforce readiness. In this scenario, AI adoption is uneven and shallow. Skills gaps prevent broad productivity gains. And U.S. employers rely on AI mainly to cover backfills and talent shortages, especially in administrative and early career roles. So this one, I think, is kind of where we are right now. The report didn't say that, but that's how it feels to me. But AI adoption is increasing, so the risk is absolutely there. Now, this report repeatedly emphasizes that workforce readiness, not technology alone, is what will determine job outcomes. But reading through it, I don't walk away with that impression at all. I believe the pace and severity and degree of adoption of AI is what's going to be the determining factor.

Pete Newsome:

And I doubt the workforce can keep up. Educational institutions can't. Just general awareness and adoption of AI at the individual level, I just don't think is prepared for how fast it could happen. So that doomsday scenario, it's very much worth paying attention to. And for anyone out there who is in the workforce, the safest thing you can do, the best thing you can do is just make sure you are adopting AI. Use it wherever possible. In your personal life, in your professional life, use it to elevate whatever it is you do. And if you're an employee somewhere, as I often say, get involved in that process of however they're implementing AI. Be part of the solution wherever you can.

Pete Newsome:

Let's continue with AI for the next story. Forrester's latest forecast says AI and automation will eliminate roughly 6.1% of US jobs by 2030. That's around 10.4 million positions, and it would mostly be due to machines performing work currently done by humans. The report revises a previous forecast that indicated 29% of all lost jobs would be due to agentic AI. And now they put that number at 50%. So of all the jobs that will be lost, they're saying now that 50%, half of them, will be due to agentic AI. And agentic AI is essentially AI systems that replicate the work a human can do, or in some cases, more than one human. They also predict that about 20% of US jobs will be strongly influenced by generative AI in that same timeframe, so by 2030.

Pete Newsome:

That essentially means that tasks and workflows will be reshaped even if the position continues to exist. Now, despite forecasting layoffs due to AI, the author does note that that isn't currently happening right now as much as companies claim. We see a lot of CEOs saying they're having layoffs due to AI, jobs being replaced by AI, when in fact these layoffs are taking place for financially driven reasons and they're just using AI as a scapegoat. So lots of predictions. We'll see what happens over time. We are all going to find this out in real time as we're living it. But I can't help but notice on an increasing basis, independent analysts are essentially saying that job loss is on the horizon, that it is going to happen.

Pete Newsome:

We see a lot of people, including those in positions of power, uh, often say that it's just not happening. And I know I sound like a broken record with that, because I want everyone to be aware of the potential, right? And there's a lot of people on an increasing basis who are saying that it is coming. And the penalty of being wrong is just having to admit that you are wrong. But the penalty of not paying attention to it is very severe. So if you're in the workforce, make sure you're paying attention to all this and embrace AI as much as possible in whatever profession you're in. Today's final headline comes from the National Federation of Independent Business. They track hiring and labor conditions among small employers.

Pete Newsome:

Their latest survey shows how confident small businesses feel and what's actually limiting hiring right now. The December Optimism Index, they put out every month, it climbed half a point in December to 99 and a half. So it's above its long run average, which is good. I mean, it's a sign that Main Street sentiment remains largely uh resilient, or at least relatively resilient, despite economic headwinds. Those are hard to keep track of these days, as we all know, for anyone paying attention. But here my takeaways related to the job market from this month's survey that they did. 17% of owners plan to create jobs in the next three months. That's positive, albeit modest by historical standards.

Pete Newsome:

Here's where it gets weird for me 33% report unfilled job openings. So one out of three small businesses can't fill jobs. And 91% of the firms who are hiring report that they can't get qualified applicants. They specifically say few or no qualified applicants. So almost everyone, more than nine out of 10. I say this every month. I see this data as soon as it comes out, and I just wonder who are you people? You're doing something wrong, clearly. I'd love to have that conversation with you. If you are having trouble hiring, call me, four cornerresources.com, Pete Newsome, super easy to find. I'd love to hear from you. I'm sure my company can help. And at the very least, I'll refer you to someone who can if it's not us. So no excuse to not be able to hire right now. And what they say is that labor quality is their problem.

Pete Newsome:

That's their biggest hiring constraint. I don't buy it. Something's wrong. You know where to find me. Before we close today, here is your fun fact. The cubicle was invented in 1964 by Robert Probst. Thanks, Robert. No one's a fan of that invention. Apparently, he wasn't either after some time passed. His original goal was to create work for workplace fluidity, but he later called the cubicle up monolithic insanity. I think we would all agree with that. So we'll close on monolithic insanity today. Thank you for listening. Please like, subscribe, share with anyone who you think might be interested, who would also be prone to like and subscribe. And if you have any feedback, let me know that too. I always like to hear it. Thanks for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.