Hire Calling

Breaking Job News: Job Growth Is Flat, Tenure Shakeups, & Tri-State Job Cuts Deepen

• Pete Newsome

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The hiring headlines don’t match the reality, and that mismatch tells the real story. ADP’s latest data shows negative net job growth, yet the share of new hires is rising. How? Host Pete Newsome breaks down the hidden engine behind today’s labor market: a shrinking labor force, rapid retirements among workers 55+, and a wave of replacement hiring that keeps companies running in place rather than expanding. Even as roles refill, new-hire wage growth is the slowest on record, reshaping leverage for job seekers.

Pete also dug into the New York Fed’s newest read on the Northeast service economy, where the employment index has fallen to its lowest level in years. Three consecutive months of job cuts, modest wage gains, and near-flat expectations reveal a defensive hiring posture: leaders trimming at the margins, freezing pay bands, and backfilling only the essentials for candidates, which translates to slower offers, tighter compensation, and a hiring process that feels stickier than the topline numbers suggest.

Then he turns to tenure data from Indeed. Sixteen percent of new hires start applying elsewhere within three months, and the shortest stays cluster in frontline roles with lower pay, demanding hours, and limited advancement. Meanwhile, the longest tenures show up in credentialed, creative, or specialized work, where skills compound, relationships deepen, and career paths are clear. The message for employers is straightforward: reward depth, invest in training, fix scheduling pain points, and build visible mobility if you want people to stay.

News Articles:
1. The Long and Short of Job Tenure: https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/11/18/the-long-and-short-of-job-tenure/
2. ADP's The NER Pulse: https://www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-is-sluggish-but-new-hires-are-on-the-upswing-how/
3. NY Fed Business Leaders Survey: https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview#tabs-2

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Pete Newsome:

Today's job market headlines include an update from the New York Fed and a breakdown on employee tenure from Indeed. But first, we're losing jobs while new hires are increasing. How is that possible? According to ADP's National Employment Report released this morning, private employers reduced jobs by an average of 2,500 a week for the four weeks ending November 1st. Net job growth is negative, yet in October, new hires made up 4.4% of all employees, which is up from 3.9% a year earlier. That's counterintuitive. Hiring has accelerated compared with the prior year, while new hires are a larger share of the workforce. And that's happening because the U.S. labor force is shrinking. Participation dropped, which means fewer people are working or looking for work. With more workers retiring and exiting, employers have to backfill roles even when business demand isn't rising.

Pete Newsome:

As ADP's chief economist points out, 36% of the workforce is now 55 or older. And that was less than 25% just 10 years ago. So boomers are retiring, seats are opening up, and companies have to scramble just to replace them and stay at the same level they were. So unfortunately, it's replacement hiring, not expansion hiring. Also, new hire pay is stagnating. Annual gross pay for new hires rose only 1.7% year over year, which is down from 2.8% the year prior. That is a huge dip. Median hourly pay is held at $18 for 16 straight months. It hasn't moved in that long. I mean, that is just a really bad thing for the economy. And seven of ten major sectors show flat or negative annual pay gains. And all of this tells us, unfortunately, that the labor market has just stalled, while inflation certainly has not. Now on Thursday, we're going to get the first jobs report from the government we've seen in more than a month since the shutdown started. And while I would love to see good news, unfortunately, I'm just expecting more of the same. And the next headline, I'll just keep the bad news going for the moment.

Pete Newsome:

Northeast service firms just posted their worst employment reading in years, and they don't expect it to get better. The November New York Fed business leader survey clearly shows that labor market conditions in the region's service sector continue to weaken. Employment declined for the third straight month, wages grew only modestly, and the firms reported little optimism about future hiring. The employment index fell to negative 8.6, which is a three-point drop from October and the lowest reading in several years. The negative index level means more firms reported cutting staff and adding it. The survey notes that this is a multi-year low, which underscores how widespread the pullback has become across service firms in New York, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut.

Pete Newsome:

While the forward employment index was slightly positive up 3.6, the survey commentary states that firms expect little employment growth in the months ahead. Business activity expectations also stayed negative, indicating that many firms simply don't see the conditions necessary to justify expanding their staff. The survey paints a picture we've come to expect when economic momentum starts to soften. Employers don't stop hiring entirely, but they become much more cautious. And that shows up in three places headcount, wages, and expectations. The three straight months of employment declines tells us that service sector firms are trimming rather than growing. And when business climate readings are this negative, companies often pause hiring altogether unless a role book is just essential and has to be replaced. And unfortunately for the Northeast, it's just more of the same that we're seeing across the country right now.

Pete Newsome:

In today's final headline, 16% of newly hired workers apply for another job within their first three months. That's a stat that jumped out at me from Indeed Hiring Lab's new report on tenure. Here are the other highlights. The median job seeker on Indeed in the U.S. has been with their current employer for two years and three months. That number varies greatly by job. Here are the titles with the shortest tenure. Front of House team member in food prep, marijuana bud tender. I did not know that was a title. And seeing it, quite frankly, I'm surprised that it is one of the shortest tenures. Thought that would be a happy place to work. Behavior technicians, restaurant hosts and hostesses, and lube technicians. Fair enough. Okay, now the titles with the longest tenure are school principal. I guess that makes sense, right? Once you get up into that role, it's kind of a cushy gig.

Pete Newsome:

I think it's probably also really stressful. I'm saying that in jest that it's cushy, um, really a thankless job, probably. But once you're in, you're gonna stay because where else are you gonna go? That's the pinnacle of um of the profession. Freelance photographer, freelance designer, owner operator drivers, and creative director. So interesting seeing the freelance titles in there. That tells me that once you're on your own, as a photographer, a designer, an owner-operator, driver, you're there to stay, right? Get that taste of freedom. It would be really hard to go back to corporate America. Across every major job category, the longest tenured positions typically involve more responsibility, greater specialization, or higher barriers to entry, from owners and presidents in management to solo practitioners in legal fields, about eight and a half years to eight years in tenure for those.

Pete Newsome:

Frontline service roles turn over faster because the jobs are physically demanding, the pay is lower, and schedules are very unpredictable. And when the core fundamentals of what people value in a job aren't there, people are going to move on. No one should be surprised by that. But on the other hand, roles that reward experience or require significant training tend to keep people longer. If it takes years to become effective, or if you're building influence, relationships, or specialized expertise, it makes sense to stay put. Workers value stability when the work feels meaningful and the career path is clear. How is that for a shock to absolutely no one? So, employers, give your employees a reason to stay and reward them because if employees are rewarded and they feel valued and they feel like they're doing something meaningful, they will stay.

Pete Newsome:

That's a win-win. So before we close today, those are your headlines, but I will leave you with a fun fact. The first modern labor union in the United States was a group of shoemakers founded in Philadelphia in 1792. 1792, as a long time ago. Shoemakers, I love it. We don't have those anymore, not like we used to. Yes, people still make shoes, but I don't see that group unionizing anytime soon. I think they probably could benefit from it with unfortunately how many of our shoes are made in other parts of the world, but that is a discussion for a different podcast, that's for sure. So thanks for listening today. Please like, subscribe, share with anyone who you think might be interested, and I welcome your feedback. Talk to you soon.