Hire Calling

Breaking Job News: Job Postings Hit a 4-Year Low as Worker Confidence Falls

• Pete Newsome

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Headlines suggest a cooling job market, but the story becomes more interesting once you delve into the data and consider its implications for your next move. Host Pete Newsome opens with the latest numbers on job postings sliding toward pre-pandemic levels and wage growth lagging inflation, then uses regional snapshots: California, Washington State, and DC vs. Idaho and Tennessee, to frame where the pain is sharpest and where resilience still shows up. 

Along the way, Pete tackles the debate everyone keeps having: is AI driving layoffs, or is it a convenient cover for cost-cutting? You’ll hear where he lands and why the answer probably isn’t binary.

Conflicting reports make the job market murky: Indeed points to slower wage growth, while Glassdoor shows a stronger pace and an uptick in “layoff” mentions across reviews. Pete explains how source differences influence conclusions and how declining employee confidence shifts the balance of power back in favor of employers. That shift shows up in offer acceptance behavior and negotiation dynamics, with a practical lens on what’s real versus what’s a data quirk. If you hire, you’ll get a candid take on how to reduce early turnover, be radically honest about the most complex parts of the job, and set clear expectations so new hires don’t bail at day 89.

There is momentum in flexible and independent work. Pete spotlights a surge in contract and freelance hiring, especially in customer support, e-commerce, creative, and technical roles. He also shares the top AI-linked skills employers want right now, including Python, machine learning, AI-generated video, design tools, JavaScript, and content writing, proving that human creativity, paired with innovative tools, beats automation alone. For candidates, we make the case for contract-to-hire as a strategic path to stable roles and faster impact. For leaders, he offers a playbook for hiring better in a tight, uncertain market: align pay to reality, move faster, and present the full picture of the role.

News Articles:
1. Upwork Monthly Hiring Report: https://www.upwork.com/research/monthly-hiring-report-october-2025
2. October jobs report: Glassdoor data during the shutdown: https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdoor-alternative-jobs-report-october-2025/
3. Job Postings Erode as Government Shutdown Continues: https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/11/06/job-postings-erode-as-government-shutdown-continues/

 💬  What do you think: Is this the start of a long-term shift toward freelance and contract work?

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👋 FOLLOW PETE NEWSOME ONLINE:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/petenewsome/
Blog Articles: https://www.4cornerresources.com/blog

Pete Newsome:

Happy Friday, everyone. Today's job market headlines are all about data, and unless you just haven't been paying attention at all, you won't be surprised to hear that the news isn't the best, but at least there's a bright spot out there. First up, as the government shutdown drags into record territory, the U.S. job market continues to slow down. According to new data from Mendeed's hiring lab, job postings in October fell to the lowest level since 2021, coming in at just 1.7% above pre-pandemic levels. Nearly half of all the sectors they measured now sit below where they were before COVID.

Pete Newsome:

Wage growth slowed to 2.5% year over year, and that is especially concerning since inflation is clearly outpacing wages, and that just cuts into workers' income and creates a cycle of consumers being able to spend less, which means companies won't need to hire more, which means they won't pay more, and it's just a bad cycle. Now, the regions that are hit the hardest uh by layoffs are also seeing the steepest declines in job postings, and that's California, Washington State, and DC. DC was down 35% below pre-COVID level, so that's just a massive decline right now. I mean, no surprise with what's going on in that area. Um, but states like Idaho and Tennessee, they're holding up better with postings well above 2020 number, so that's a good sign.

Pete Newsome:

The report also notes that white-collar layoffs, particularly in technology, media, and marketing, may be linked to automation and AI adoption, but those aren't the sole causes of the current slowdown. And that's a debate that continues to escalate and from one article to the next, one study to the next, survey to the next, I just see it such so contradictory right now. And I think there's two camps where half the people believe that AI is causing all the job losses, and the other camp is not convinced of that at all, but think that it's just a cover-up uh as a way of explaining layoffs for other reasons, just downsizing in general. I tend to sit right in the middle. I think it's both. I do believe AI is taking jobs right now, but it also makes sense to me that certain companies, especially some of the big uh massive enterprise organizations, are using that as an excuse.

Pete Newsome:

That is going to play out over time. I see contradictions from major economists too. I mean, just at a conference earlier this week, one of the uh economists who spoke said that he doesn't think AI is really going to displace jobs at all. I was a little surprised to hear that. Uh, his conviction about that was very strong. And the next keynote speaker pretty much said the opposite. So, look, this is very much a work in progress. We are living this experiment in real time. I say that often, and we're going to have to see how it plays out. But what I care about right now is the job uh market is not in great shape. Um, and as long as this shutdown lingers, it is only going to get worse for everyone.

Pete Newsome:

And not to pile on, but if you're feeling less confident about your job right now, unfortunately, you're not alone. Glassdoor's October Jobs report came out and it shows that employee confidence fell sharply, down from 47.8% to only 45.7%, which is the lowest level since June. Travel, transportation, and public sector employees, they all saw the biggest drops. And of course, they've been heavily affected by the government shutdown. Now, salaries were only down slightly month over month, but still showed a year-over-year growth of 5.2%. Now that is much different than Indeed's report in the same timeframe showing 2.5% wage growth. That's a massive discrepancy. And that's common to see in data, and I always try to step back and figure out why. Why would those numbers be so different?

Pete Newsome:

And Indeed is showing their data based on job postings. Glassdoor is, of course, an employee review site. And when I see employee review sites, there's always a lot of fives if it's a one out of five rating, a lot of ones, and really nothing in between. So you really only see the extremes. And I always kind of laugh at that and think, was no company ever just okay or good enough? You know, it's always awful or terrible. And so that's always a caveat to me when I see Glassdoor data, because it is only coming from those who choose to go on and do a review, right? Of their interview of the company they work for.

Pete Newsome:

And so keep that in mind with the rest of these numbers. Glassdoor also measures a frequency of the word layoff being mentioned in reviews, and that came in 22% higher than a year ago. So that is a very strong signal. No matter how subjective this data is, it tells us really what is happening in the job market. So that one jumped off the page at me. Um it's it just indicative of the trend that we see reported on a weekly basis, almost a daily basis, it seems lately. So that wasn't good to see. Also, from the report, job offer rejection rates fell in October. They came in at 18%. So 18% of candidates who received job offers declined them. And that was down 23% from 23% a year earlier. And I really struggle with these numbers. And I'll tell you why in a second, but the Glassdoor analysts they say it's a sign of reduced worker leverage where employees are more willing to accept offers that they otherwise wouldn't because of economic uncertainty and slower wage growth.

Pete Newsome:

And I believe that is happening, that makes sense. But what doesn't make sense to me as a staffing company owner who's been doing this a long time is that one out of five candidates currently are declining job offers, or one out of four candidates were declining job offers a year ago. It just doesn't work that way. The hiring process is flawed to say the least, but that would just be indicative of a completely dysfunctional interview process that a massive number of candidates would, or employers rather, would have to be facilitating. And I just know that's not the case. And no staffing company could be in business with those kind of numbers. I wouldn't work with any company where for whatever reason candidates were turning down their job offers at such a significant rate. I mean, it's rare when a candidate turns down a job offer. So that's what they're reporting.

Pete Newsome:

I scratch my head over that a little bit. I mean, the only conclusion I can draw is that a lot of companies are lowballing candidates when they make the offer, and the candidates feel compelled to go on Glassdoor and make a make a point of sharing that. So I think that is probably happening. Again, the data here is always a little biased to me on Glassdoor or any review site, but it still gives us a trend, and that's why I'm willing to talk about it. So, look, regardless of its of its flaws, it's indicative of where the pendulum is right now. And the pendulum is in favor of employers when it comes to leverage in the job market. And I do believe it's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of when it will swing back.

Pete Newsome:

But with the tariffs being an ever-moving target, the government shutdown, when is just anybody's guess right now. So I'll continue to monitor and talk about it. For some slightly better news, full-time hiring has slowed down, but flexible work is starting to take off, at least according to Upwork's October hiring report. They found that 78% of businesses plan to hire flexible or independent workers in the next three months. That's great to see. It's the highest number of the year. And it's primarily due to seasonal hiring. We know that, but a win is a win. We will take it, it's a step in the right direction. Customer facing roles are up 30%, especially in e-commerce and tech support. So love seeing it.

Pete Newsome:

And also creative and technical roles are starting to surge. Game design is up 38%, branding's up 19%, and marketing and PR overall, they're up 14%. So my take on that is we're seeing that companies really just can't rely fully on AI, ChatGPT, LLMs. We need humans to collaborate and work aside the AI tools. But AI hiring, that's not going away. That's up to here are the top 10 roles that are in demand with AI skills. So pay attention to these if you want to work in that space. Graphic design, Python, video editing, machine learning, AI-generated video, chat GPT, of course, that's in there. Uh Adobe Photoshop, JavaScript, Adobe Illustrator, and content writing. I really like seeing content writing in there. There was such a trend to get away from copywriters when ChatGPT came out.

Pete Newsome:

And seeing that go back the other way, I love it. A win for humanity. Robots, you don't have a speat yet. And so the message I want to pass along to job seekers also with this, uh, this is coming from Upwork, right? They're a freelance site. And I know many people who have found themselves unemployed through no fault of their own. They didn't intend it for that to happen. You are looking for a permanent job. You want the security of that. But keep in mind there's no security in that really. If you found yourself laid off, that should be enough to prove the point. And so don't look past these short-term opportunities, seasonal, contract work. I'm slightly biased, of course, because I own a contract staffing company. We place people in direct roles right from the start, but the majority of what we do starts off as contract positions. And historically, in our 20 years in business, about half of those positions convert to a direct employee of our client.

Pete Newsome:

So you start as a contractor, you do a great job, and they will find a way to keep you. It happens over and over. And when I say I have hundreds and hundreds of stories to back that up, I'm not exaggerating. It's maybe in the thousands at this point. So don't turn those down. Don't consider them or refuse to consider them just because they're not ultimately what you want. If you get in and prove that you're you're worthy of being there, they will find a way to keep you. At least most of the time. So those are our headlines for the day. And I'll close with your fun fact, maybe not so fun fact in this one, but it was something that I heard at a conference earlier this week, and that is that one-third of all new hires will quit within the first 90 days of starting a new job. I think it's high. But I think any of these numbers, while not perfect, they're still indicative of the overall state of things.

Pete Newsome:

And so that is a lot. Companies, interview as best you can, screen. But here's my advice in doing so. Tell your candidates the worst parts of the job. Don't try to convince anyone to come work for you. If anything, talk them out of it before you get to that point, right? Tell them what the worst things are that they can expect. And then you won't have so many people quitting your job when they start. You can fix that stat if you want to, if you're an employer. So thanks for listening today. Please like and subscribe, share with anyone who might be interested. And um, thanks for listening. I'll talk to you next week.