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Breaking Job News: America’s Vanishing Jobs, 2025 Pay Trends, & the Federal Pay Freeze

• Pete Newsome

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Is the job market really cooling or just recalibrating?

New data from PayScale paints a more complex picture: unemployment is rising, participation is declining, yet wages are still increasing in critical, high-stakes sectors. From energy and electronics to construction and compliance, pay growth now follows scarcity, risk, and reliability. Host Pete Newsome breaks down which roles are leading the charge (think utilization review coordinators, IT project managers, and internal auditors) and what that means for your 2026 planning.

Then we turn to the federal shutdown, now stretching past a month, as more than 700,000 workers face prolonged furloughs and uncertain back pay. Pete unpacks the human and institutional toll, lost morale, eroding retention, and the quiet exodus of top talent, and explores how leaders can make clear, deliberate decisions before dysfunction does it for them.

Finally, Pete zooms out to America’s vanishing jobs, from the farm to the factory to the algorithm. The shift from manual labor to digital leverage isn’t new, but AI is accelerating the cycle. We share practical strategies to adapt, including mapping tasks to automation, measuring outcomes, and upskilling where human judgment still prevails.

Whether you’re managing payroll or navigating your next career move, the message is the same: choose precision over panic and adapt early.
 
👉 What do you think: Are we witnessing a cooling market or a quiet reinvention of work?

News Articles:
1. Pay trends and modern market pricing in the age of AI: https://www.payscale.com/featured-content/pay-trends-report
2. Shutdown furloughs extended to late Nov: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2025/10/feds-told-shutdown-furloughs-extended-to-late-november/
3. The biggest careers that have now vanished, according to data: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/03/what-common-jobs-have-mostly-disappeared-us-heres-data/

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👋 FOLLOW PETE NEWSOME ONLINE:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/petenewsome/
Blog Articles: https://www.4cornerresources.com/blog

Pete Newsome:

Today's job market headlines tell us that the federal government shutdown may stretch deep into November, and there's a story about jobs that were once very common in American careers, but have almost vanished entirely. But first, PayScale's 2025 Pay Trends report says the U.S. labor market is finally cooling after several red hot years. Now, we know that at this point. That isn't news, but it's a new report that just came out. It shows that job growth is stalling, unemployment is up to 4.3%, and job participation has dipped to 62%. And despite that, wages are still outpacing inflation, at least in some areas. High demand sectors like energy, electronics, and construction are seeing the biggest pay jumps, while lower wage workers continue to lag behind.

Pete Newsome:

On average, companies plan 3.5% salary increases for 2026, which is down slightly from last year. Roles showing the fastest wage growth include utilization review coordinators, IT project managers, and internal auditors. These are jobs that are all tied to risk, regulation, and operational reliability. And the job market is always driven by supply and demand, but that's exaggerated right now. So for employers, be selective when it comes to giving raises, hires, and of course, terminations. And for workers, it's important to be pragmatic right now. Know where you are in the market, know your value, if you will, and stay close with what's happening. Because I'd love to tell you that things are going to get better, and I'd love to tell you they're getting going to get better in the near future.

Pete Newsome:

But I'm just not seeing signs of that. And this report is just indicative of what all the other data is showing. There's improvements in some areas, but overall, we're just stuck in neutral. And that seems to be the message that unfortunately will be around for a while unless things turn a little bit worse. And I want to be optimistic, but it is really important just to take an honest view of the current situation. And right now, it's just good to operate with precision above all else. That's probably the best way to phrase it. In the next headline, the government shutdown is now past 31 days, and agencies are warning furloughed employees that it could stretch through late November. Departments like Commerce, Justice, Homeland Security, NASA, and the GSA have sent new furlough notices extending unpaid leave to roughly 700,000 workers. And the big question currently is about retroactive pay.

Pete Newsome:

Some of the letters, including NASA's, say back pay isn't guaranteed unless Congress writes it into the final funding bill. That contradicts prior precedent under the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act, which previously ensured back pay after shutdowns. So we're entering uncharted territory, not necessarily good. And there are more than 1.4 million federal employees who missed a paycheck this week, with half of them still working without pay. So, regardless of how you feel about federal workers, many people out there believe that we have way too many. There's too much bloat in the federal government. I won't weigh in on that right now, but you have to feel empathy for these workers who certainly don't deserve this. No one should be making that case, at least I hope not.

Pete Newsome:

And the longer this goes on, the more likely it is that they're going to start to jump ship. And many of them, probably the most skilled public servants, are going to be the ones who do that first. And when something like this happens, morale, retention, trust, if that exists at all anymore, and then recruitment is going to take years to rebuild. So look, Congress needs to act. We know that. And again, if you're one of those people who think, hey, we just have too many workers, this is ultimately a good thing. This isn't the way to do it. If cuts are needed, make the cuts. If there is too much bloat, address that.

Pete Newsome:

But don't do it under the federal shutdown and using that as an opportunity to have workers just become frustrated and leave. It is just a no-win situation right now in that scenario. So we shouldn't be doing it this way. And then finally for today, there's a story in the Washington Post about jobs that have vanished. Now, this is from their Department of Data answering what's really a fascinating question about which once really prevalent American jobs have mostly disappeared. And the winner by a mile is farmer. In 1860, about 32% of all American workers worked on farms. 32%? I mean, that is unbelievable.

Pete Newsome:

One out of three American workers in 1860 worked on a farm. And today that number, just 0.3%. Other lost trades include blacksmiths, shoemakers, tailors, and sailors. Okay, no surprise hearing those. Maybe we don't hear those job titles anymore. They're not the same way that they used to exist. And these jobs that shape the early American economy have been replaced by industrialization and then later automation, and that continues to increase. And miners, who were once 2.5% of the workforce, now only make up about 0.1%. Now economists call this structural transformation, when productivity growth pushes workers into new kinds of jobs, first factories, then retail, now technology and services.

Pete Newsome:

So we see this happening. It's a really interesting article in Washington Post about this, so I advise checking it out, because we are living this right now as a new era rushes forward with AI. And while history shows us that every era thinks its jobs will last forever until the next wave of innovation arrives, this shift now is going to be vastly different than when we went from farms to factories. This AI evolution is happening at a rapid pace, unlike anything we've ever seen before. And I will continue to bang the gong, sound like Chicken Little, whatever it might be, and say, don't be surprised by what's happening and the rapidity with which it is happening, because I don't think this cycle is going to be like the ones before. And there will be winners and losers from this, no doubt about that. And those winners are going to be the ones who adapt early.

Pete Newsome:

So pay attention to what's happening with AI, be ahead of the curve if at all possible. And then in closing, your fun fact for today is that before the Industrial Revolution, work was often dictated by the seasons and natural daylight, not the clock. Not a coincidence that I'm sharing that today with daylight savings having just kicked in. And people worked shorter winter days, longer summer ones, and rested between planting and harvest. Well, that was a big deal when the workforce was at 32%, worked on farms.

Pete Newsome:

I still can't believe that. I mean, I know it's true, but that is hard to believe that life in 1860 was so different. And now with remote work and flexible schedules, and you know, we just daylight just doesn't matter anymore. Here we are in the comfort of our own homes or air conditioned buildings with lights and Wi-Fi and internet. Um, just much different than a life of roosters and sundials. So there's your headlines for today. Thank you for listening. Please like, subscribe, share with anyone you think might be interested, and I look forward to talking to you soon.