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Breaking Job News: The Fallout of the Government Shutdown, AI-Unemployment Link & “Pay-to-Apply”
The headlines say AI hasn’t hurt jobs. The reality? It’s already rewriting them.
In today's job news, host Pete Newsome takes a hard look at new data from Yale’s Budget Lab showing no clear link between AI exposure and unemployment. On paper, the job market looks steady. However, as new agent tools roll out and AI capabilities surge, Pete explains why stability in the numbers doesn’t always translate to security on the ground.
He also breaks down the latest Gartner research redefining how CHROs lead in the human-machine era, from building HR-specific AI strategies to redesigning roles and reigniting culture. Additionally, we explore the 'messy middle': AI-written resumes, one-click applications, recruiter fatigue, and how hiring teams can maintain quality standards to prevent it from slipping through the cracks.
Finally, Pete examines how a potential government shutdown could hinder labor data collection, delay reports, and impede decision-making across various industries, as well as what savvy companies are doing to stay prepared.
Whether you’re a hiring leader or a job seeker, you’ll walk away with a clear takeaway: use AI to enhance, not replace, human judgment.
News Articles:
1. Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/evaluating-impact-ai-labor-market-current-state-affairs
2. CHROs’ Top Priorities for 2026: https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-10-02-gartner-says-chros-top-priorities-for-2026-center-around-realizing-ai-value-and-driving-performance-amid-uncertainty
3. Pay-to-Apply Model as AI Resumes Overwhelm: https://www.airesumebuilder.com/1-in-5-employers-may-adopt-pay-to-apply-model-as-ai-resumes-overwhelm-hiring-teams/
4. Furloughs hit federal employees: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2025/10/furloughs-hit-federal-employees-exempt-from-shutdown-laid-off-staff-told-to-keep-working/
💬 What’s your take: Is AI truly helping or quietly hollowing out jobs? Drop your thoughts in the comments.
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In today's job market headlines, AI is rewriting the rules of hiring and how CHROs manage their company culture, and the federal government is still shut down. But first, new research from Yale's Budget Lab reveals there is no correlation between AI exposure and unemployment, and no clear signs that AI automation is cutting jobs at a meaningful scale. At least not yet. They looked at how the U.S. job market has changed in the 33 months since ChatGPT launched and found, well, not much has actually changed. Here's how they summed up the research. While anxiety over the effects of AI on today's labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative. The picture of AI's impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level. While generative AI looks to likely join the ranks of transformative general-purpose technologies, it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs. Now, the technologies they referenced are computers introduced in 1984 and the Internet in 1996. And while their measurement of the past two and a half years may tell us what has happened so far, I believe it's naive and maybe even irresponsible to suggest AI won't impact jobs at scale. Just in the past few days, OpenAI alone has improved Sora to a point where I question the future of video, graphics, and film, anyone working in that space, not far off in the distance, but in the immediate future. And there's a rumor that today OpenAI will drop an agent builder. And if that happens, and it may have happened by the time you're seeing this, it will be another massive impact on worker productivity and being able to do more with less. The game will change yet again. So I expect this impact to be severe, and that's understated. If that sounds overly paranoid, so be it. Let me be the one to sound the alarm and then be wrong. I want to be wrong because that is infinitely better than being caught off guard by the impact that AI can have on the job market. So don't be fooled, be aware of what's happening. That's a message I want to give as often as necessary. But make no mistake, executives are getting ready. According to Gartner's new 2026 CHRO priorities report, HR leaders are laser focused right now on figuring out how to harness AI without losing the human edge. They outlined four big priorities for next year. First, harness AI to revolutionize HR, essentially meaning that HR departments will need their own AI strategy, not just one that's dictated by IT departments. Second, shape work in the human machine era. They want to get their arms around how their teams will function when AI increasingly becomes part of daily workflows. Third, they want to mobilize leaders for growth, effectively teaching managers how to lead through constant change. I mean, that is very important right now, needless to say. And then fourth, fix culture atrophy. Only 47% of CHROs in the survey say that their current culture actually drives performance. So they want to see that improvement. Gardner said that CHROs are being pushed to take what they refer to as a now next approach. Now, focus on today's results, what's happening immediately. But next, prepare employees and processes for an AI-integrated workplace. The quote that stands out from the article came from Mark Whittle, Gartner's VP of Advisory. He said CHROs should take an enterprise-wide view of AI's impact on work, the impact of change on leaders and employees, and how to evolve organizational culture to support performance expectations. In other words, companies that don't teach their people how to work with AI are going to fall behind fast. Now let's talk about how AI is impacting hiring. A new survey from AIResumeBuilder.com found that one in five employers say more than half of the resumes they currently receive are AI generated. I bet it's significantly more than half. But the result of this is that hiring managers are drowning in AI-written applications, and that's on top of one-click applications that was already creating a mess in the job search process. So now it's one-click apply plus AI-generated slop. That's not good. And it is creating some problems according to the survey. 61% said AI resumes are making candidates look more qualified than they actually are. That should surprise no one. We know ChatGPT and these other LLMs exaggerate. So if you're not correcting those exaggerations, then yeah, you're gonna get caught with your hand in the cookie jar as a candidate. 62% of the companies surveyed said they have fired someone after realizing the candidate's skills didn't match what their AI polished resume claimed. So now reading that makes me question these companies in their qualifying and interviewing process. Make no mistake, I blame any candidate who claims to have skills or experience they don't actually have. But if a company hires them anyway without proper screening and confirmation, that's on them. And where this is all leading is that according to the survey, now I haven't heard this, but I'm going by this survey that says one in five employers are now considering a pay-to-apply system to slow down the flood of applications. Would you do that? Would you charge candidates if you're a hiring manager? Would you pay to apply if you're a candidate? That's pretty wild to think about, but it's not a complete shock to me either because we know the system is inherently flawed right now and only getting worse because of AI tools. There's um at least one software that claims to apply to hundreds of jobs a day for a candidate. I mean, what a mess that has been created. So if you have an opinion on whether you would apply anyway, even if you had to pay maybe what, a penny? A fraction of a penny, that's possible with blockchain technology. So we'll see where that leads. But my takeaway from this is if you're a candidate, use AI to enhance your resume, not write it for you. Never let AI be your voice. And also, if it's not something that you can back up in an interview and defend, don't include it on your resume. Assume that if something's on your resume, you will be asked about it in an interview. And companies who are interviewing, yeah, make sure that a candidate is who they say they are when you're looking at the resume. Don't just take that for granted. Do a little digging before you hire someone. And finally, for today, the government shutdown is now in its sixth day and it's starting to hit federal employees hard. According to Reuters, President Trump's administration is threatening mass layoffs across agencies as negotiations stall. Now, that threat has been in place for a while, but every day that passes, that's getting closer to becoming reality. Thousands, tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of federal workers are either furloughed or at risk by now. And even traditionally insulated agencies like the General Services Administration are sending out mixed messages. This is crazy, it sounds like a complete cluster. Some employees who were laid off months ago have received new notices telling them to keep working during the shutdown. So they're not working already, but the message is to keep working. And that kind of bureaucratic chaos is ultimately bleeds into the affecting the entire economy and specifically the job market. Beyond the obvious and immediate disruption, every week of a shutdown means missed paychecks, delayed data releases, whether we can trust that data or not, and uncertainty that spills over into the private sector. So you think government contractors, any business or individual who works in a supporting role is going to be impacted by this shutdown as it drags on. As one GSA employee told Federal News Network, if this shutdown drags on, we'll lose access to more federal labor data, meaning private sources like ADP will become the only source for pulse checks on the job market. That's not ideal. I would have said I favored the uh private company reports or ADP specifically, but not after last week when they revised their previous month's data. So they've started to behave like the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well. So as I've said every day for the past week, Congress, specifically the Senate, where this bill currently sits, needs to pass the continuing resolution sooner than later for all of our sakes. So where does that leave us for today? Well, we're entering a world where AI is reshaping jobs rapidly. Um, some claim they're not destroying them yet. I question that to a significant degree. And employers are trying to figure out how to deal with all of this. And then on top of that, we have the government that um is trying to figure out how to turn the lights back on. So before we go, here's your fun fact. The average office chair with wheels travels about eight miles per year. I don't know if mine travels eight miles per year. It doesn't really move that much. I'll go back and see my dogs over here. Buy me is one there. Um, I do travel a few feet at a time, a few times a day, but eight miles a year? I don't know. That's a fun fact. I didn't, I I I took it from someone else, so we'll assume that it's true. Thank you for listening today. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, like, subscribe, share with anyone you think might be interested. And as always, I welcome your feedback. See you soon.