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Breaking Job News: Fed Governor Issues Job Market Warning & The Rise of ‘Hybrid Creep’
The job market is changing faster than anyone expected, and today’s headlines prove it.
In this episode of Breaking Job News, host Pete Newsome unpacks three critical developments shaping the future of work:
1. The Federal Reserve’s new focus on jobs: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warns that “deteriorating labor market conditions” could force the Fed into rate cuts sooner than expected. What does this mean for businesses, hiring managers, and employees across industries?
2. AI’s takeover of tech jobs: According to Google, a staggering 90% of tech professionals now use AI daily, up from just 14% last year. But while AI boosts productivity for senior workers, it’s crushing opportunities for entry-level tech talent. With software engineering job postings down 71% since 2022, is AI rewriting the career path for an entire generation?
3. The rise of ‘hybrid creep’: Companies like Intel, NBC Universal, and Starbucks are quietly dialing back flexibility, steadily increasing required office days. With 34% of employees now back in the office four or more days a week (up from 23% just a year ago), are we watching the slow death of remote work?
News Articles:
1. Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's speech on the job market: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20250923a.htm
2. Google report on tech workers using AI: https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/23/tech/google-study-90-percent-tech-jobs-ai
3. All you need to know about the 'hybrid creep': https://www.businessinsider.com/hybrid-creep-employers-increasing-rto-days-office-2025-9
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Today's big job market headline comes from a speech Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman gave this morning where she indicated the Fed isn't just watching inflation right now. They're focused closely on the job market, she said, focused primarily on the inflation side of the dual mandate. Now that we have seen many months of deteriorating labor market conditions, it is time for the committee to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility. In my view, the recent data, including the estimated payroll employment benchmark revisions, show that we are at serious risk of already being behind the curve and addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward. Okay, so they think inflation's in check, but the job market is heading in the wrong direction. That's not news. I wish they would have arrived at that conclusion sooner. It's been pretty obvious. All the signs were there. It didn't take this major revision that was just announced for us to realize that, but nonetheless it's where they are now.
Pete Newsome:Bowman went on to say I'm concerned that the labor market could enter into a precarious phase and there is a risk that a shock could tip it into a sudden and significant deterioration. Now that isn't necessarily a five alarm fire, but it's heading in that direction. I'll give her credit. She indicated that policy needs to be forward-looking and not just chasing last month's inflation or employment data. I think the federal government has a history of doing that. The Fed specifically has a history of doing that. The Fed specifically has a history of doing that, and if someone is willing to look forward, we will definitely benefit. We just had a big rate cut. This speech indicates to me a clear signal that there are more to come sooner than later, and I'm glad they don't want the job market to get worse. Hopefully they act soon.
Pete Newsome:In other news, google just dropped a stat that should catch everyone's attention. 90% of technology workers now use AI on the job. That is a massive leap from just 14% last year. These findings come from Google's Dora Research Division, based on a survey of 5,000 global technology professionals. And at Google itself, ai isn't optional. Ryan Salva, who oversees Google's coding tools, told CNN if you are an engineer at Google, it is unavoidable that you will be using AI as part of your daily work. But it's worth noting that just because everyone's using it doesn't mean everyone trusts it. Nearly half of the developer surveyed said they only somewhat trust AI-generated code, while 23% trust it a little. Only 20% trust it a lot. And when it comes to results, 31% said AI slightly improved code quality, while 30% said it had no impact. This explosion of AI use is happening while entry-level technology jobs are shrinking rapidly. The New York Fed recently reported unemployment for computer science grads now tops fields like art history and indeed shows software engineering job postings are down 71% since February 2022. So AI is clearly reshaping the career ladder. It's helping experienced engineers go faster, but it's making it increasingly difficult for new grads to get their foot in the door. So that's the real story here. To me is AI is unavoidable. We know that in every aspect of life, specifically in technology. But the question is less about adoption and more about whether the industry can balance those efficiency gains with the opportunities that need to be there for the next generation of workers. So we'll have to see what happens there as time goes on.
Pete Newsome:Our final headline today according to Business Insider, there's a new workplace buzzword making the rounds. Yes, we have another one Hybrid creep. It describes how employers are slowly but steadily ratcheting up the number of days employees must be in the office. Intel just raised its in-office requirement from three days a week to four, and NBC Universal and Starbucks recently made similar moves. It's happening on a very, very regular basis right now, almost daily. According to a new Owl Labs survey of 2,000 US workers, 34% must now be on-site at least four days a week, up from 32% in 2024 and only 23% in 2023. The CEO of Owl Labs calls it the boiling frog concept. Rather than forcing workers back all at once, companies are turning up the heat gradually, so employees adapt without, I guess, jumping out of the pot.
Pete Newsome:Wharton professor Peter Capelli says this incremental approach isn't about pushing workers out. Well, I think many people would argue with that, but he said nobody's quitting now anyway and points out that turnover has slowed dramatically. Okay, that may be true, but that is because right now, it's an employer's market. Employees don't have the luxury of just being able to jump from job to job right now, because they don't like what their employer's doing and that's. They feel handcuffed right now. There is no question about that, and employers are wielding this power, so I won't be naive. I think it would be naive to say that workers are okay with it. Workers don't have any choice. That's what's really going on Now.
Pete Newsome:Interestingly, after saying that, the Owl Lab survey also found that 21% of employees now say that they'd like to be on site four days a week. Who are those employees? I don't know them, but that said, 37% who took this survey also said that they would decline a job offer from a company that didn't have flexible hours, and to me, that's what it should be about flexibility. Yes, you may think it's important for your workers to be in the office, and there may be great reasons to do that, but be flexible, I mean. I feel like we have moved as a society, as a workforce in America, beyond rigid work hours, and so the more flexibility, the better Happy workers I'll make for productive workers and happy environment and successful companies. I do believe that very truly. So the bottom line is hybrid creep. It may signal a slow winding down of flexible work, at least some companies, but time will tell how that plays out. Look, rto is definitely on the upswing for now, but for now we'll see what happens when the workers are back in control.
Pete Newsome:And before we go today, here's your fun fact. As always, studies show the best temperatures for office productivity is about 77 degrees Fahrenheit. If it's too cold, people make more mistakes. Okay, that study was not given to me or for me, because I would be sweating and miserable and uncomfortable at 77 degrees, couldn't do it. No way has to be colder than that. So maybe I'm making errors that I'm unaware of, but so be it. That's a tradeoff that I'm willing to live with. So thank you for listening today. Please like, share, subscribe this video and any feedback you have. I'd love to hear it. But yeah, thanks for listening, I'll talk.