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Cornering The Job Market: Bad News in the BLS 10 Year Employment Projection Released Today

• Pete Newsome

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In today's episode, Pete shares the latest U.S. employment projections from the BLS, which reveal a significant slowdown in job growth over the next decade.

Also, discover why some say the monthly BLS job revisions aren't a bad thing, hear the results from Express Employment's job seeker report on job security, and find out the average number of job changes in a worker's career. 

News Articles: 
BLS Employment Projections: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm
Weekly unemployment data: www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251334.pdf
The case for job revisions: https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/the-hidden-story-behind-bls-jobs-revisions
Job Seeker Report: https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/survey-finds-workers-fear-any-job-could-vanish-in-a-downturn

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Blog Articles: https://www.4cornerresources.com/blog/

Speaker 1:

This is Cornering the Job Market. For August 28th, I'm Pete with Four Corner Resources and here are all the work-related headlines you need to know today, beginning with the employment projections that came out this morning from the BLS. This is their assessment of how well they think the job market will do over the next 10 years. The good news America's job market is still growing, but over the next decade it's only expected to grow by 5.2 million jobs, which is far, far slower than the last 10 years. The BLS projections show that US total employment will hit 175.2 million jobs by 2034, which is a 3.1% increase, but that's compared to a 13% increase from 2014 to 2024. So it is way down from there. I mean, this is a bad sign for how things are slowing and we have to assume or at least I do that they're giving us their optimistic view right. And if that's what they're reporting and we all know, and I'll talk more about this in a minute, bls reporting is not always the most trustworthy then I think we have cause to feel nervous about this. Specifically, office and admin support, sales production jobs. Those are what they're expected to be hit the hardest and will actually decline due to automation and AI cutting demand for routine tasks. So that's already happening. Just project forward 10 years and think how's it going to look then.

Speaker 1:

I think these estimates are very, very conservative. But it's not all bad news. There is growth, healthcare in particular. The baby boomers are not getting younger, far from it. So that is going to see a lot of growth. Overall, healthcare is expected to grow by 8.4%. If you want to know the fastest growing industry, that is services for elderly and disabled. They project that will grow by 21%, adding over half a million jobs, and these are nurse practitioners, pt assistants, physician's assistants. Those are some of the fastest growing roles that they're projecting. I'll link the full release in the notes so you can see it there.

Speaker 1:

Just some more quick BLS news. The initial unemployment claims for the week came out this morning as well, and they're down by 5,000. So that's always a good sign. It means employers aren't having layoffs with any significance. Right now Everything's kind of still stable. I'm seeing that in my own business, in staffing, as well as what the data is showing right now, and even talking to my peers around the country. So we're still kind of in that hurry up and wait mode. Moving on to our next story, at this point.

Speaker 1:

Almost everyone is aware of the recent BLS job revisions, where they revised down the numbers originally reported for May and June by 258,000. That is a massive number. Now, this isn't new, though. It's been happening for as long as I've been reading the reports. It just happened to get a lot of press this time Trump fired the BLS director. It's still in the news almost every day, but the way it works or it's worked this way for a long time at least they'll put out great numbers. They'll get lots of press. Everyone pats himself on the back, but quietly at the bottom of the report they revise the numbers from previous months. So I'm glad that this is getting exposed, but not everyone thinks these revisions are bad and that they happen for really good reason.

Speaker 1:

Staffing industry analysts put out an article saying that it's all because the initial reports rely on partial data. Now, that's great, but you need to say it up front. Don't portray it as being something that it's not. You know it makes sense, though, right? These data relies on private companies who have to report they don't always do it on time and that these initial results are always just intended to be preliminary. Again, fine, but why not just wait. I don't know who's benefiting by putting out bad numbers only to revise them later on. And again, do it quietly when they can get away with it. Surprisingly, a former BLS commissioner even says that it's a feature, not a bug, because it allows the agency to deliver timely data. Well, who cares if it's timely, if it's inaccurate? So do better government, do better BLS. No one trusts you at this point. Maybe we never will, but that's where we are right now.

Speaker 1:

And finally, for today, the latest job seeker report from Express Employment just came out. In it, 73% of respondents agree that no job is secure, no matter how well they're performing. It's 73%. I mean, that's a lot. I think that should be 100%. No job is fully secure. Yes, that is absolutely true. Employees need to be vigilant about their situation and don't assume that just because things are good today, they're going to be good tomorrow. Things change too rapidly for that. Also, in this survey, 71% say job security is becoming a thing of the past. Well, I'd argue that job security has never really been a thing. Perceived, sure, but actual no.

Speaker 1:

And listen, I don't mean to be fully pessimistic about this, it's just reality. Be open and honest where you can, as an employer to your employees. I believe very strongly in that. It's one of the reasons I started my own business, so my employees never had to wonder where they stand. But that is not always a possibility at large companies. In fact, it's what I hated about working for large companies Someone many levels above me, who didn't even know who I am, was going to be making decisions that could affect my life at any given second, and it's just not something that I was ever really comfortable with. So it's good that most of the people in this survey aren't really comfortable, but I would tell you no one should fully be unless you have that kind of intimate relationship with your employer so you always know where you stand.

Speaker 1:

And before I sign off for today, how many times do you think the average American worker will change jobs in their career? Five times, seven times, eight times, twelve times is the number according to a recent survey, the most common reason for switching jobs no surprise, to seek a higher salary. That number sounds high to me and since I read it I've been trying to think of all the people I know in my personal and professional life, of how often they've changed jobs. But when I stop and really consider the individuals and the number of jobs I know they've had. Yeah, 12 sounds about right. So where are you on that line? Are you above, are you below it? Either way, I hope you're in a job you like right now. Just don't get too comfortable with it. That's it for today. Thanks for listening. I appreciate it. Like, subscribe, share with a friend and give me any feedback you have. I'd love to hear that too. Thanks.